The application of bayesian model for estimation of the probabilities of alternatives under uncertainty with the use of nonnumeric, inaccurate and incomplete expert information
Keywords:
The Bayesian model, distribution of Dirichlet, piecewise constant function, the method of randomized probability, ARIMA – model, exponential smoothing, the Dickey Fuller testAbstract
In this paper the Bayesian model of estimation of piecewise-constant density corresponding to the decomposition of the ternary range of possible values of the random quantity is considered. The model is based on the estimation of parameters of the Dirichlet distribution for nonnumeric, inaccurate and incomplete information. The analysis is performed for the evaluation and prediction of the statistical characteristics of the CHF with respect to XDR. For comparison the quality of the result for the same data were investigated with the use of classical econometric method: construction of ARIMA – models and forecasting method of exponential smoothing.References
Published
2012-06-01
How to Cite
Zhuk, S., & Evstratchik, S. (2012). The application of bayesian model for estimation of the probabilities of alternatives under uncertainty with the use of nonnumeric, inaccurate and incomplete expert information. SPIIRAS Proceedings, 2(21), 95-119. https://doi.org/10.15622/sp.21.7
Section
Articles
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